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As such, the election will be a real test of the democratic system in the United States. But the US electoral system is full of quirks that must be factored in when betting on presidential betting odds. Remember that Trump gained the presidency despite earning fewer votes than Hillary Clinton in So forget about virtual sports betting tips for one moment, and look forward to betting on the biggest political event of the 21st century. Ordinarily, Donald Trump would have little hope of retaining his presidency.
The Covid pandemic has lead to the deaths of over , Americans, and its effects have ravaged everything from employment levels to the economy. The tactic worked wonders by getting him into the White House last time around. But the current presidential betting odds suggest that Trump will need a small miracle on Tuesday. Joe Biden had to fight hard to gain the nomination to be the Democrats presidential candidate. This saw him positioning himself as a centralist as opposed to more left-wing candidates like Bernie Sanders.
While the tactic initially proved divisive, it seems to be finding him support in some surprising areas. Biden has emerged to be a popular choice among women and older voters. Plus simply by playing the straight man to the wildcard of Trump, he has recently gained the odds US presidents would want just days before going to the polls. But whether Biden has what it takes to get his message across the circus that is a Donald Trump presidency remains to be seen.
At the moment all top bookmakers have very close odds for both Biden and Trump to win the US presidency. So if you were to pick a truly profitable betting market, president bets might not be the way forward.
Here are some other interesting ways to enjoy betting on US election. Plus you can vote on the state won by the smallest margin, or even key states won by both the Republicans and Democrats. All of which means that you should do plenty of shopping around to find the best value bets. This means that you should be able to go to some of the biggest European bookmakers like Bet and Betway and get very competitive odds. However, it can also be worth checking out some newer online betting sites like 22Bet and TonyBet where you might find more specialist betting markets.
Plus bookmakers like Pinnacle have earned a good record of serving up competitive odds for all major events. But as the presidential elections of showed, these polls can often be very misleading. So here are the three likely scenarios for what could happen on Tuesday. By looking at a current state of the electoral betting market President Trump should be worried.
This is because Biden is the favourite to win. But Trump has shown that he can defy the odds. After all, he managed to alienate many women and most people of colour in and still gain the presidency. Should punters jump on this bandwagon or do the moves in fact make Joe Biden the superior value? In my view, Trump is entitled to judge the convention a success.
Critics and internal opponents were nowhere to be seen. His party is now both loyal and on this public evidence, devoted to their leader. That said, any assumption that the convention played well with the public is exactly that. There is little or no evidence of improving polls. Public engagement with both conventions was down on One plausible explanation for the gamble is that Trump supporters and backers were in such high spirits, they put their money where their mouths are.
According to the first polls taken following the Democrat Convention, Joe Biden has not received a bounce. Simultaneously, the betting trends have moved against him. The lack of bounce may or may not explain the market trend. The move was already underway.
Now, we shall see whether Trump gets a bounce after his own convention as the Republicans meet in Charlotte, North Carolina. He certainly did following their convention, briefly overtaking Hillary Clinton in popular vote polls. Equally though, remember that opinion has been extraordinarily consistent and entrenched since Trump took office. It is quite possible, perhaps likely, that we again see very little change. One profound difference with was the unity. Four years ago the DNC proceedings began with disaster.
This convention passed off without any such incident. The fact it was socially distanced was a great help, as it prevented footage of argument or protests however small being amplified. Rather the party came across as absolutely focused on defeating Trump. Whether left-wingers such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Elizabeth Warren or centrists such as Clinton, the message was consistent.
Avoid complacency. Remove this unique threat to democracy. In that respect they can also count upon a growing number of Republicans. For months, Team Trump has been painting the 77 year-old former VP as a sleepy figure, struggling with dementia, who can barely finish a sentence. Having set such a low bar, Biden was always likely to exceed expectations.
But it was competently delivered, without pauses or errors. Nor was any evidence of mindrot on view in his setpiece interview with ABC. Thus, many worries were assuaged. One speech stood out above the rest, in terms of delivery, potency and significance.
Presidents shy away from criticising their predecessors, let alone get involved in elections. This piece first appeared at betting. It is my initial reaction to the VP selection. After months of drama, it turns out the market was right all along. The California Senator would have led the betting from start to finish, were it not for a flip to Susan Rice just a few hours before the decision was announced.
Now, we must weigh her merit and value to the ticket. What difference, if any, will she make to the result? Quite the reverse. For sure, there are positives. Harris is a heavyweight. This former prosecutor is a strong debater and forensic interrogator in the Senate. She can deliver good lines and will be an effective attack dog during the campaign. She will attract big donors. The first ever woman of colour on a major party ticket will inspire Democrat activists — a high percentage of whom are black women.
Any Biden path to the presidency hangs around the black vote in swing states. These are all reasons she was so high in the betting for the nomination and presidency. They make sense on paper. Yet when it came to the primaries, despite a vast cash advantage over most rivals, she completely flopped. The likeliest specific explanation is that her well-publicised debate performances played badly. A classic hit-job, geared to creating viral media clips, but one that appeared cynical and harsh. If not between the pair, bad blood still lingers between allies, apparently.
Incidents like this cannot be understated. Even when a politician is relatively well-known, most voter perceptions of them are shallow, based on small nuggets. Most previously knew relatively little about Harris and this amplified, negative impression damaged her. She is now being introduced to a much larger audience. There has never been a mismatch like it in the history of political betting.
Polling models, however, paint a very different picture. I can think of least eight possible explanations. The final result was only 1. Polls in key states were further out but not on the scale required were the election today.
At the biggest election since — the mid-terms — the polls were spot on. There is no strong third party splitting the anti-Trump vote. Perceptions can of course change during the campaign, especially about the much less defined Democrat. Keeping a low profile from his basement has worked a treat for Biden, letting Trump damage himself over Covid, but that will change in September.
The campaign will indeed be challenging for a 77 year-old, whom Team Trump say has dementia. Much earlier presidential bids were ruined by gaffes. However he may defy low expectations at set-piece moments. In the last two Democrat primary debates, Biden was widely deemed the clear winner. Trump also lost all three debates in by big margins. US elections are incredibly dramatic affairs. Scandal and smear campaigns are guaranteed. Trump has already been impeached for bullying the Ukranian government over military aid in exchange for manufacturing dirt on Biden.
His team are openly pursuing the same tactics and flagging it up on their media. We will see what emerges and any effect. However scandal could just as easily hurt Trump, especially regarding his long-running legal problems and ongoing revelations about his ties to Russia. In either case, the impact needs to be big as polls show very few persuadable voters. Trump is determined to restrict mail-in voting.
There will be further voter suppression tactics. Mail-in votes will take a long time to settle, setting the stage for chaos. I do fear the worst on that front but the betting will be settled on votes, regardless of whatever chaos ensues. Convention season is underway, with the Democrats going first in Milwaukee, followed by the Republicans in Charlotte from next Monday.
Naturally, various stars of the Democrat party have dominated early proceedings, with one particularly standing out. Team Biden is able to call upon one of the most popular and revered individuals in America in Michelle Obama. All highly predictable. More significant are the contributions from former Republicans. Monday saw former presidential candidate John Kasich address the convention. Colin Powell for Joe Biden.
Some grassroots Democrats were uneasy at having representatives from the enemy party speak at their convention. They are wrong. This is brilliant politics, demonstrating the vast anti-Trump coalition behind Biden. All three are notable. Powell also endorsed Obama so that was predictable, yet still good optics. The McCain family are yet to officially endorse but I expect they will and are timing the announcement for maximum effect.
Astonishingly, Trump continued to slate the Republican nominee and war hero after his death. Cindy McCain for Joe Biden. Daughter Meghan has a close relationship with Biden. They have talked publicly about grieving together — Biden is well-known to have suffered terrible personal tragedy. Win here, as the polls consistently forecast, and Biden will become president. A former Governor of a bellwether state — Ohio. He previously served in the Bush administration.
Kasich is anything but a Trumpite. He called out Trump and his agenda repeatedly during a bitter primary season, impressively staying above the fray when that chaotic contest descended into personal abuse. When last discussing the US election for The Hub and in my extensive interview with Betfair , the betting was roughly tied. I argued the odds were wrong because numerous indicators pointed towards Joe Biden. The main odds open up various hedging opportunities using smaller markets.
There is no way Trump wins the electoral college without Florida. Yet his odds for the former are comparable to the outright odds and much bigger for the latter percentage target. If you fancy Trump, focus on those bets rather than the presidency.
Regarding vote share, consider recent elections. One explanation was that partisanship already ran so deep that there were very few persuadables. Fivethirtyeight measure it at To win again in a more conventional two-horse race than , he needs extra voters. There is nothing in the numbers to suggest, or logical explanation why, he suddenly wins over opponents who strongly disapprove in record numbers, consistently.
Various electoral indicators paint a similar picture. Biden is well ahead in the key states, most notably the must-win Florida — a state with a large elderly, white population. They are trailing in key Senate races and even some traditionally safe states are competitive. Of course, we must consider the counter-arguments. Events, scandals can change an election year.
He still has decent economic numbers, despite the Covid disaster. Were a vaccine found, markets would soar. Plus be sure, Trump has all manner of unconventional tricks up his sleeve. The presidency is decided via an electoral college, for which each state awards a set number of votes ECVs to their winning candidate. For example, Florida has 29 ECVs among the overall total of The winning target is On the night itself, the betting will update live with numerous firms, after the polls have closed.
The betting can go wild. It is challenging because tallying up the ECVs requires fast maths and being able to weigh up the implications of each result as it emerges, from different time zones. The majority of states are regarded as either safe Republican or Democrat, so the result always turns on five or six swing states. Therefore we begin our calculations with the shares minus one.
Trump starts on The winning line is so he afford a net loss of The list shows every competitive state besides New Hampshire, Minnesota and Nevada was won by Trump in Therefore unless causing a big upset in any of those states, every state he loses subtracts from the tally. These maths are precisely why it pays to keep up with the state-by-state picture, and to understand the relation to the outright odds.
He trails by 6. Yet Trump is only 2. Surely it makes better sense to back him for FL than the presidency. Michigan looks a certain Democrat gain so, without that, he only has 21 in hand. Higher odds than for the presidency, as is the case in Wisconsin at 3. Therefore, the best pro-Trump betting plan is to spread the stake around Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina. According to the Washington Post , Joe Biden will announce his running mate at the end of next week, just ahead of the Democrat Convention.
Given that a decision was originally expected by the start of August, it seems his choice remains far from certain. Last week was crazy, involving all sorts of media speculation and the odds about all the leading candidates fluctuating wildly. Long-time favourite Kamala Harris crashed into odds-on, matched down to [1. She then drifted out beyond [2. This really has been a cracking market, packed with uncertainty and betting drama. Consider the trio rated closest to Harris.
Susan Rice was matched earlier at [ Both Rice and Bass traded below [4. The process has been nothing like recent Democrat VP races. The thought process here is very different from most political markets. We are guessing to a large extent and dependent on mainstream media articles.
The weight of money behind Bass and Duckworth was unpredictable, significant and ultimately correct. Dream trades. Nevertheless, I remain sceptical of the Harris gamble and reckon her market status owes something to name recognition. There is evidently a lobby against her, as revealed by multiple press briefings.
The principal charge is that ambition would make her a rival for the presidency. Her campaign had T-shirts made to celebrate the incident. It did her no good. Moreover it angered many people around Biden , including family members of his campaign team. Her lack of remorse during a meeting with Biden ally Chris Dodd did not heal those wounds. For example one where she was made Attorney General, instead of VP. For me, this is a bigger negative than could be made for any of the other main contenders.
They will portray Harris as a disloyal, over-ambitious, over-political left-wing prosecutor. Why take such a risk when, whatever her qualities, there is no evidence of her improving the ticket electorally, either via polls or any electoral college effect? If Biden has indeed delayed his decision, surely that is bad for somebody who has been high on the shortlist from day one?
Click here to read the full article at betting. Nate Silver has some rather unflattering comments to make about the rationale of betting markets. I don't think people realize how dumb and sometimes even irrational the prices are at political betting markets as compared to almost every other type of market which is not to say other markets are always rational, either. No doubt the Fivethirtyeight pundit is responding to the sustained mis-match between the odds and polling models.
While there are numerous possible explanations, one is blindingly obvious. Punters remember and how Trump defied the polls, pundits and betting. There is plenty of time to close the gap and become competitive. Only time will tell but Trump backers should beware of making a common mistake in re-fighting the previous election, assuming the same conditions will apply.
They rarely do. Each election is unique , as are the candidates, dynamics and public perceptions at any given time. Of all recent elections, was the most predictable. One might say an overdue endorsement of conventional form guides. Polls, leader ratings, MRP predictions and the consensus narrative all pointed towards a Tory majority. Corbyn and Labour had declined since Yet right up until the exit poll, a strong counter narrative held the Tory odds up, particularly in Labour-held target seats.
Because these were targets where the Tories had failed badly in Labour had completely dumbfounded the polls and consensus narrative in , for various reasons. Labour majorities generally rose in their heartlands. As it transpired, proved completely different. Boris Johnson cut through with Brexiters in ways Theresa May never could.
Whereas UKIP without Farage failed to retain many converts, his new Brexit Party vehicle made substantial inroads into the Labour share where it mattered. Part of the explanation surely lies in pollsters and opponents learning lessons from the shock of and adapting their methods. The Labour comeback remains a bigger betting upset than either Trump or Brexit. They got No overall majority was backed at double-digit odds. Even when the polls started to turn, few believed that younger people, especially aged , would turn out in such big numbers.
When Survation and Yougov veered from the polling consensus and forecast a hung parliament, they were literally derided on live TV. Because people were assuming the same dynamics as and failing to factor in subsequent developments.
Brexit led to much greater engagement among younger voters. Corbyn inspired a new movement of activists, particularly online, where they dominated in Momentum changed the conversation from Brexit to austerity. The combination of these factors enabled Labour to monopolise the anti-Tory vote. Exactly days remain until the US election — a useful marker for the beginning of the final stretch. While we await official confirmation at the party conventions, it would require something extremely dramatic to prevent Donald Trump and Joe Biden being the nominees.
Current signals point strongly towards Biden , whose odds are steadily shortening on the exchange. The former Vice President is a 1. There is, however, plenty of time for change. This will be the fifth US election ever to be traded on Betfair. In many respects, trading at the day stage was typical of that extraordinary race — a landmark in the history of political betting. The odds fluctuated considerably throughout the day — the average odds matched were 1.
More than ten times as many bets were placed as the equivalent day in Despite being clear outsider, two thirds of those bets were placed on Trump. Further evidence of his gamechanging effect on politics. History will of course record that the market was wrong. Clinton was the strongest of any favourite at this stage during the Betfair era — considerably more so than Biden despite a smaller poll lead.
Therein lies a great myth of Rather it was we pundits and punters that over-rated Clinton. She would maintain a solid overall lead on both indicators but Trump did lead occasionally and there were blips. Going into the first debate, she was around [1. In terms of drama and unpredictability, was the direct opposite of Barack Obama was [1.
He would never cede favouritism en route to a 3. The only blip came when Obama was widely acknowledged to lose the first debate. Romney briefly took a small lead in some polls but that may have actually helped the incumbent. In fact, state polls consistently pointed towards an electoral college win and these drove market trends more than nationwide figures.
Obama steadily shortened in the betting as polling day neared, trading around 1. Republican incumbent George W Bush left office with very low approval ratings, against a dire economic backdrop. The financial crash and subsequent bailout of banks and insurance companies would leave a near-impossible task for GOP successor John McCain.
Polling signals, whether at national or state level, continue to point strongly towards a landslide victory for Joe Biden. The Next President markets by far the most liquid but merely one among hundreds of betting opportunities. New ones emerge almost daily, whether side markets on the main event or the vast array of Congressional races. Also on November 3rd, there is the nationwide race for control of the House of Representatives and Congressional districts, plus 33 Senate races.
Going in, Democrats control the former with seats, while Republicans lead the Senate by seats. Betting is available on all bar the less competitive House districts. Whilst each of these races is a stand-alone event, voting trends are closely related to the wider political argument. The USA was already a deeply polarised country, with ever fewer persuadable swing voters, before Trump came along.
Under his presidency, that polarisation has become entrenched. I do not, therefore, expect a dramatic change in the polls. On the question of this election — a referendum on Trump — I reckon this polarised electorate splits against. Numerous polls — including at times when he was faring better nationally — showed around this figure committed to voting against him and even, during the impeachment process, to be removed from office.
My current prediction is On value grounds, I prefer [8. It is quite possible things get worse for Trump under the campaign spotlight. The Trump era has engaged and energised voters on both sides of the argument like never before.
My view is that trend helps Democrats because turnout is a historic weakness for the left, in large part because they rely upon electoral segments that are less likely to be registered — young and minority voters, for example. Lower turnout among Dem-leaning groups are the core reason that Hillary Clinton lost.
The much improved turnout in worked wonders for them, yielding their best result since the s. They won by 8. Generic ballot polls have barely moved since — the RCP current average has them ahead by 8. Until that happens, we have a fascinating and unpredictable market to consider. Kamala Harris remains favourite although the California Senator has drifted slightly to [2. Whether her market status is telling, however, is a known unknown.
Harris was always a logical candidate. A well-connected, experienced Senator who fits the bill as a potential president, suitable for stepping up in a crisis. A woman of colour, former rival in the primaries, now an enthusiastic surrogate, who would bring plenty of big donors to the table.
I am sceptical that anyone playing this market has an inside track. Rather, it is moved by rational calculation and stories in the media. This despite being arch-enemies — the Ohio Governor even skipped the party convention and refused to endorse him. For most of the build-up, eventual pick Mike Pence was an outsider. If we are to read anything into the betting, Tammy Duckworth may be the one. In truth, Duckworth is one who escaped my attention when building numerous back and forth positions.
She is a woman of colour and her backstory — losing both legs whilst serving in Iraq — is formidable. Nevertheless, she is plausible. This is precisely the sort of fight Trump would be insane to engage in. Veterans are a core, loyal part of his base.
My instinct is generally that fights involving women targeted by Trump and Fox will play positively for Democrats. This was part of my earlier thinking regarding Gretchen Whitmer , after her fights with the White House over Covid help and lockdown in Michigan.
However her chance seems to have faded following the George Floyd murder and protests, on the assumption that Biden would pick a woman of colour. Likewise, I can very much see Biden wanting to have Susan Rice take on her critics on a big stage. This would be another very stupid fight to pick. Moreover, Rice has intervened with interviews and op-eds on Russia , and the unresolved scandal that Trump has done nothing to counter or protest to Putin about bounties being placed on the heads of US soldiers.
They have no defence. At their final sitting of this term, the US Supreme Court offered considerable relief to those fearing the rule of law was in mortal danger. In two long-running cases, they effectively ruled that President Trump is not immune from investigation. It did not, however, give those voices what they wanted most — a means of removing Trump from office before November. There were two cases. Trump was fighting the Manhattan District Attorney, who has subpoenaed his tax returns and financial records as part of a criminal investigation, from his bankers and accountants.
By a margin, the court ruled in favour of the prosecutors. In Trump v. The second case was similar, but brought by Congress. Here, the court ruled that House lawyers must improve their argument. This will now go back to the lower courts. The good news for Trump is a general consensus among legal experts that these rulings mean nothing will come out before the election in November.
The US court process will simply take too long. That certainly applies to the Congressional subpoenas. Trump will continue to successfully block that democratic oversight. However, the situation regarding New York is not crystal clear. These Trump investigations are well developed — delayed for a year by these legal challenges — and both Deutsche Bank and Mazars immediately confirmed they would comply.
In theory at least, DA Cyrus Vance could move quickly and potentially indict the president before November 3rd. None of this prevented Trump from declaring victory and employing his usual refrain that all the investigations are a political witch-hunt. Furthermore, it is widely reported that he will pardon Roger Stone today. Four days before the Machiavellian advisor is due to go to jail, and a couple after Facebook banned a network of fake accounts connected to him.
The Supreme Court sends case back to Lower Court, arguments to continue. This is all a political prosecution. Not fair to this Presidency or Administration! So what are the implications for November? It is hard to make a confident call about the New York case from outside.
Shocking information about Deutsche Bank is emerging from investigations in multiple countries, such as their involvement in money laundering for the Russian mafia. Exactly 17 weeks today, US voters head to the polls for what appears, right now, to be their most one-sided election of the 21st century. Betting signals, however, remain far less clear. There are countless potential reasons for the differential but the most obvious regards trajectory.
A July poll is a mere snapshot of opinion, ahead of an intense campaign during which much can change. As we are frequently reminded, polls can be wrong and there is a long time to go. Remember It is indeed important to remember the previous election — both as a guide to the fallibility of betting signals but also in order to avoid drawing false comparisons.
The situations differ in at least six respects. Yes, Clinton led the polls but her position was never this strong. Using the RCP average, Biden currently leads by 8. The final RCP average showed Clinton ahead by 3. One reason pundits were blindsided by the polls was extra parties polling much better than usual.
Those ordinary Clinton tallies seemed high enough. As it transpired, whilst Gary Johnson, Jill Stein and Evan McMullen did take a much higher, gamechanging share than minor parties usually do, they fell back in the latter stages. Critically, late deciders swung for Trump. In theory, a challenge could yet emerge and split the non-Trump vote.
Kanye West just announced his bid on Twitter. Trump and Clinton were the two least popular candidates ever. He always had negative approval ratings. Hers turned sour during more than a year under FBI investigation for an over-amplified e-mail scandal. Clinton conspiracy theories were deep in the US psyche long before Russia and Wikileaks got involved.
Despite at least most of their claims being false, they carried enough of a ring of truth for those who wanted to believe. The same cannot be said of Joe Biden. The big mover is Mike Pence , upon reports that Trump might withdraw from the race.
The Vice President has more than halved in odds from [ Bizarre as it may sound, this is actually quite normal for a US election. In , Biden, Pence, Bernie Sanders and Paul Ryan generated large trading volumes even after both parties had confirmed different candidates. The day that Hillary Clinton collapsed with pneumonia in Manhattan remains the most surreal and dramatic I can ever recall in political betting.
Given how fake news and confected scandals are even more prevalent now, expect similar drama in That, however, seems a long way from what could be a ruinous July for Trump. For once, I think there is real substance behind this gamble on Pence. Trump is in a world of trouble.
On the ropes, facing a series of potential knockout blows. The Supreme Court will rule imminently whether he must release his financial and tax records — including the infamous relationship with Deutsche Bank. Then on Friday, arguably the worst emerged. Claims that Russia was paying the Taliban to kill US troops, yet Trump had yet to formulate any sort of response.
Trump has so far denied being briefed on this intelligence — a defence that few experts find credible. The story appears to be confirmed by the range of media and intelligence sources. My impression over the weekend is that the Trump machine is shellshocked. Their current position is unsustainable. If he was briefed, he must explain why no action was taken.
If not, why not, and what is the response to be now he knows? That he is considering withdrawal. It is almost two years since I predicted on these pages that corruption would finish Trump , forcing him to withdraw in Four years since I first discussed the threat from his relationship with Vladimir Putin. True, he has defied expectations, once in an election, twice in somehow managing to shake off the Mueller Report and imprisonment of numerous key allies.
Could it all be coming together? We are in uncharted territory. I have said from the outset that Trumpism was unsustainable. The next month — as this latest Russia story evolves, the Supreme Court rules and his niece Mary Trump publishes her damning book — may prove the tipping point. We know what happened next. Johnson secured his place in Tory folklore by securing their biggest majority since the s.
Brexit was delivered, although the post-transition agreement implications are yet to play out and remain an issue of profound importance. He contracted Covid and needed intensive care before recovering. Having won such a big majority and still leading the polls, there is a chance Johnson could be in office for a decade. Plenty of time for a backbencher or even a newcomer to emerge.
That long-term scenario, however, is looking less likely. Whereas he gained tremendous public sympathy whilst ill, distracting from failures and his slow response to the Covid crisis, Brand Boris is disintegrating in office.
Over the past week, numerous well-placed Westminster journalists reported deep unease among Tory MPs. The image of a part-time PM, who misses Cobra meetings and leaves unelected advisor Dominic Cummings in charge, is taking hold. Whereas he owed his job to being an undeniable electoral asset for the Tories, he could soon be a liability.
As we saw with Theresa May, the Conservative Party does not tolerate unpopular leaders. The next election is not due until but there is a good chance they will switch before then to somebody deemed more electable. As the market implies, one man is well ahead of the rest. No politician has had a better crisis than Rishi Sunak — the young, telegenic Chancellor who created the popular furlough scheme. Moreover, colleagues are apparently very impressed with his intellect, focus and skills displayed in their Zoom meetings.
Click here to read the full article, free of charge, at gambling. What may ultimately prove to be the biggest political gamble of all-time may be underway. Joe Biden just hit his lowest odds yet to be Next President , at odds of [1. Over the past month, an average of K has been matched per day.
The move for Biden marks a distinct turning point. A wide differential between pollsters and election models versus betting markets has been evident for months, and still exists. With a good campaign, for example. Trajectory, however, is moving fast in the wrong direction.
A second common argument for backing Trump involves the electoral college. As in , he could afford to lose the popular vote and stay in power — by winning the swing states. The localised numbers from the same pollster are arguably even grimmer for the president. There are, of course, more than four months until polling day, for Trump to turn things around. As we are constantly reminded, remember what happened in Moreover as an incumbent, there is even less historic precedent for such a turnaround.
No incumbent president has won from being further behind than 2. Of the elected presidents who came from behind to win re-election, how behind were they? Obama trailed Romney by 1. Those are the only comebacks by an elected incumbent. Trump is now behind by Having long argued that there is a clear anti-Trump majority and that this election would be a referendum on him, I have no intention on reversing my series of lays on him average 2. The election produced unprecedented drama. Both parties hacked by the Russian state.
Buckle up — will be even crazier. If one lesson was to be surprised by nothing in politics anymore, another regards how betting markets are moved by even the wildest speculation. Right up until polling day, people were backing alternative Democrats to replace Clinton on the ticket.
Trump is in very serious trouble. Both approval ratings and head-to-head polls against Biden are abysmal. Both he and down-ballot Republicans are staring at catastrophic defeat. It is near impossible to keep up with the US news cycle. George Floyd protests. Covid spreading across America, with increasingly terrible infection numbers. Trump holding an indoor rally amidst fast rising numbers in Tulsa — scene of the worst ever massacre of African Americans — coinciding with Juneteenth celebrations marking the end of slavery.
All those subjects are hurting him. Then there is the ever growing band of former White House colleagues and senior Republicans lining up to condemn him. Kow-towing to President Xi over Chinese concentration camps, whilst begging for help to get re-elected, for example. Just as we were digesting the first releases, a new scandal involving long-term legal stress blew up.
Geoffrey Berman, the Manhattan prosecutor overseeing numerous cases regarding Trump and various associates, was effectively sacked by the Attorney General. Investigations and perhaps imminent charges, will carry on as normal. To reiterate the obvious, political fortunes change faster than ever. This market is moving. From substantial sums being matched at [1.
To be fair, there is little suggestion of imminent change. Odds of [7. It comes in the wake of a terrible news cycle for the government. Their management of the Covid crisis is derided around the world and coming in for ever more criticism at home. Less than a third of the public approve of their measures.
The Dominic Cummings lockdown scandal may have at least exacerbated two problems. First, it squandered much public goodwill. Second, it aggravated a media who were already revolting over their treatment. More significant are the criticisms personal to Johnson, emanating from friends, rather than enemies. Considering how bad the news cycle has been, they will be encouraged. The entrenched divide that has hardened since Brexit persists. Furthermore, it increasingly seems the effect of his divisive presidency could take the Republican Party down with him.
The critical difference between Trump and conventional politicians is that he completely dominates the conversation. With every tweet, rally or confrontational press conference, he generates a fierce reaction, serving to entrench opinion on either side. Even as strong disapprovals hit record levels, his approvals remained remarkably stable around percent.
No recent incumbent won a second term with an average approval below 49 percent at the end of June of election year. So far as the presidency is concerned, Joe Biden is now leading by an average 8 percent and rising. These two indicators are, of course, different from the wider partisan divide in American politics and down ballot races across the country between Democrats and Republicans. The closest electoral expression of these numbers is the nationwide vote for the House of Representatives.
When Trump was elected on Click here to read the full article, free of charge, for casino. Split into four parts, we discuss my career and approach to betting — whether that be sports or politics; many of the dramatic elections and betting upsets of recent years plus of course a lengthy chat about the US Election. Part 1 focuses on my career. My background in politics, gambling and journalism. Some clues to how I make a living from betting on sports.
Part 2 focuses on political betting and a discussion about why the betting markets got three major elections wrong — the Brexit referendum, the US Election and Australian Election. Part 3 moves on to the Election. Could Biden or Trump be replaced at the top of the ticket? How can we best navigate information? Which social media accounts should we follow? Part 4 goes deep on the Election. How to play side markets, such as the electoral college, and use them to hedge against the main market.
Also some thoughts on how to bet in-running, on election night. Click here to read the full interview, free of charge, at The Hub. Once it was reported that Amy Klobuchar was being vetted, the Minnesota Senator shortened below [4. The murder of George Floyd by police officers her state, however, may have put paid to her chances. There is no suggestion of wrongdoing on her part but the optics are terrible. Considering she has been shortlisted and vetted, there is a case to be made that her current odds of [ However there are plenty of other senior roles for Biden to give this close ally.
The campaign narrative is obvious. Biden is the non-scary, moderate return to normality. The Democrat who can win over disillusioned Republicans. Reunite America after Trumpian division and white supremacy. After Black Lives Matter protests swept the country, picking a woman of colour is now very likely. That is bad news for the two white women previously tipped — Gretchen Whitmer and Elizabeth Warren — and good news for the favourite, Kamala Harris.
The California Senator is now into [2. Harris too has reportedly been vetted, but I remain sceptical. Plus she failed to excite black voters during the primaries — even after clumsily attacking Biden over working with segregationists and opposing school busing during the s. That row with Harris would definitely be used. Biden made his position clear yesterday but closing down that line of attack should remain a priority.
Before the Floyd murder and protests put racial injustice and policing centre stage, I backed a different black woman about whom such accusations will never fly. Check out the thread below. Her odds have duly collapsed into [6. Her case is impeccable. A working-class black woman, who rose to become Orlando police chief — in the most important swing state of Florida. Demings was selected by Nancy Pelosi as part of the Democrat impeachment team , prosecuting Trump.
But no candidate is without weakness. We must now add a sixth, that might well supercede them. The death of George Floyd at the hands of police officers in Minnesota has changed everything. Police brutality and racism are not new topics in US politics. Nor are protests and riots.
There were several incidents during the election, during which the Black Lives Matter campaign played a prominent role. However protest has not been seen on this scale since the sixties. Police gassing peaceful protesters and attacking journalists is not in keeping with a functioning democracy. How will this affect the election?
The immediate impact appears terrible for Donald Trump. Rather than seeking to unify the country, he stands accused of fanning the flames with provocative tweets and politicising the crisis. The images of peaceful protesters being gassed in order to clear a path for a photo-op with a bible outside a church may prove definitive.
Whilst ongoing looting or violence against the police may ultimately help Trump, for now polls suggest voters are taking a more rounded view. That they are likelier to understand that the issues around racially biased policing and justice go much deeper than this singular case.
Even the betting markets — which have been much more Trump-friendly — are turning against the incumbent. Biden is now favourite at just below even money. In the previous political betting masterclass, I focused on election betting and mentioned how each particular race is unique.
Assuming the dynamics will transfer to the next contest is usually bad strategy — politics changes quickly. The same argument can certainly apply to another popular type of market — leadership contests. Consider some recent examples. Because a narrative had grown, simplistically categorising their half-a-million members into rigid factions. There are plenty more famous examples. In reality, the party had changed in the four years since it picked Mitt Romney — in tone, policy and members.
The history of leadership contests is littered with bad early favourites. Particularly the Conservative Party, although Boris Johnson broke the mould last year. The recent Democrat primary involved favouritism switching between four candidates before Joe Biden finally won.
A classic mistake is to overstate the importance of early polls. When members or supporters are first asked, name recognition will be uneven. They will be unable to form a considered opinion about several candidates.
The dynamics of the race will not yet be clear. Laying the early favourite generally proves a good tactic. A common mistake made in leadership contests is to assume that party members will be in tune with wider public opinion. That is why Corbyn, for example, was the outsider of four when I tipped him on these pages back in For at least a month, the media ridiculed his candidacy, primarily on the grounds that he would prove unelectable with the wider public.
The point they missed was that Labour members as with all political parties are, by definition, unrepresentative. The key to identifying Corbyn was understanding the mood of the members. The same could be said of the last Conservative contest, when MPs who voted to Remain in were at an irreversible disadvantage compared to Leave backers — because the party members were very pro-Brexit. Indeed this is a recurring lesson with both parties. In Kenneth Clarke, the Conservatives had twice previously rejected a well-known candidate, with wide popular appeal, on the basis of his pro-European stance, in favour of virtually unknown alternatives William Hague and Iain Duncan Smith.
Labour picked Ed Miliband over brother David — generally regarded to be more electable — due to their policy differences, not electability. Likewise, this is essential knowledge. The Conservatives operate a multi-round system.
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